PSEi, 1/11/08

  • Trending down in a price channel
  • Currently in a technical correction and appears headed towards the trendline resistance
  • MAs are all pointing south confirming the strength of the trend
  • Major support/resistance levels: 3375/3667
  • No apparent evidence of a bottoming out
  • Copyright (c) 2008. Whipsaw. All rights reserved.  www.whipsaw-p6chat.blogspot.com

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    DJIA, 1/11/08

  • Trending down in a channel
  • Encountering difficulty to launch a correction after a bounce off the recent support
  • Slope and flaring of the MAs and the MACD signal line illustrate that the downtrend continues to gain momentum
  • Major support/resistance levels: 12501/13780
  • No visible evidence of bottoming out.
  • Copyright (c) 2008. Whipsaw. All rights reserved.  www.whipsaw-p6chat.blogspot.com

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    Lessons From A Trading Diary

    If I hadn’t made money some of the time I might have acquired market wisdom quicker.

    - Jesse Livermore

    The ING Philippine Equity Fund, despite its size, was beating the index in the first half of 2007, until the subprime crash hit, prompting it to switch gears and pursue a modified strategy. 

    For the largest institutional equity fund, to shift from Food and Banking to Mining, and to double Communications exposure, such changes didn't happen overnight, but over a dynamic process that took 12 volatile months. Unlike the retail investor, institutional fund managers will always worry about liquidity in their decision making. As Paul Garcia, who runs the ING Philippine Equity Fund, says, "It is difficult to move when you are bigger than the market's turnover."

    Diary Of An Investment Fund (Part Five: Evolving Strategies)

    October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. 

    - Mark Twain

    September 2007

    Global markets begin to recover from the meltdown. PSE Index stages a 6.2% rally to recoup YTD gains to 19.8%, effectively rebounding 23.9% from its recent low and now within 5.8% of its all-time high. Daily turnover was thin and foreigners remained net sellers for the month.

    The rebound was blue-chip driven with TEL hitting a new all-time high and AC rising after announcing a share buy-back next month. Property and banks rebounded later in the month on BSP rate cut speculation with ALI outperforming. Mining took center stage as LC, PX, MA, and GEO surged 29% to 57% each on the back of record highs in mineral prices. MER was the index loser, falling after being handed a disappointing tariff rate hike.

    Diary Of An Investment Fund (Part Four: Turbulent Times)

    If there were no bad speculations there could be no good investments; if there were no wild ventures there would be no brilliantly successful enterprises. 

    - F. W. Hirst 

    May 2007

    It's election month. Market sets new all-time high with the PSE Index gaining 6.2% bringing YTD yields to 16.5% while the fund gained 7.4% for a YTD yield of 22.8% The manager writes "following relatively peaceful elections that assured President Arroyo of a stronghold in the lower house." 1Q GDP was suprisingly higher at 6.9%–highest in 17 years. Foreign direct investments soared while inflation remained below consensus estimates.

    Diary Of An Investment Fund (Part Three: A Good Start)

    “The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it's different.'”

    - Sir John Templeton

    Starting Point – December 2006

    "2006 was A Good Year" states the ING Manager's Report. And good it was. The PSE Index ended the last 12 months up 42.29%, its highest annual gain in the bull run since 2002. The fund beats the index and ends the year with a NAVPU gain of 54.67%, quite a feat considering the fund's size. The rosy outlook for the period is summed up by the Manager's comments: "Prospects are quite positive with fiscal improvements leading to record-low interest rates and a strong Peso, which in turn lay the ground work for a stronger recovery in overall demand and profits."