Some charts for the week, spotlight: oil play

Yes it's me, talking about my most hated commodity, evil oil.  In our past article, we researched on how much of the oil movement is actually 60 to 90% based on speculation only and not on real demand movement.  Way before that, we even touched how local pump prices seem to lead crude oil markets in raising their prices, while lagging crude oil declines in lowering their prices in the decline of crude last year.

Well, here comes oil again, in a textbook ascending triangle formation.  The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern.  

A Flock of Black Swans – by John Galt

Let me share with you an interesting article from shenandoah, which tries to foresee unexpected events that may come plague the markets.

From the battle lines in Extremistan, the time is growing near for these birds to swarm together as the seasons change once again. So what happens if there is one more than Black Swan event in a compressed period of time? Let’s see what could  threaten this little bubble of joy and happiness that our friends in Bubblevisionland live in and what could trigger the Messiah taking that course of action that Vice-President Biden warned about before his regime took power.

Daily Market Notes August 28, 2009

PSEi    2,884.18         UP      2.78
value php      4,153,388,685.00

DOW    37.11 +0.39% 9,580.63
NASDAQ  3.30 +0.16% 2,027.73
S&P 500 2.86 +0.28% 1,030.98
 
America posts good jobs and housing data, but their equity markets falter at the beginning and recover somewhat by the close.  Maybe such apprehension would be expected after 7 or 8 days of going up.
 
Locally, the usual weekend worries halt an opening runup dead in its tracks to make for a flat close.
 
Index losers were limited to 4 issues, namely: MBT TEL PX AC, whose total losses made up of 13 psei points.
 
About 1/3 of the index stocks were flat by the close, leaving the top gainers at the hands of SMPH MER BPI AEV MEG MWC SM RLC.
Overall gainers with volume include CMT 1.18, CHI 2.02 (volume relative to itself is quite "big" at 147k shares), ORE .82, RCM 3.5, BSC .185, WEB .10.

Big net foreign activity were concentrated on the ff:

Daily Market Notes August 26 27, 2009

PSEi   2,863.53        UP      5.38  08/26/2009
value php          3,408,853,055.00      

PSEi 2,881.40        UP     17.87  08/27/2009
value php     3,821,721,446.99

DOW    30.01  +0.32%  9,539.29  08/25/2009
NASDAQ  6.25  +0.31%  2,024.23  08/25/2009
S&P 500 2.43  +0.24%  1,028.00  08/25/2006

DOW     4.23 +0.04%  9,543.52 08/26/2009
NASDAQ  0.20 +0.01%  2,024.43 08/26/2009
S&P 500 0.12 +0.01%  1,028.12 08/26/2009

Had to attend to some personal matters and was not able to witness trading firsthand for the
past two days.

It would seem that there was nothing to report on American equity markets as they traded virtually flat in the recent sessions.

Locally, Wednesday was pretty flat so let's concentrate on today's activity.

The Ayalas and the Banks step in to make up for the vaccum that the index leaders TEL and MER
vacated. 

Daily Market Notes August 25, 2009

PSEi                 2,858.15         DOWN    1.03
value php 3,373,801,260.00

DOW     3.32 +0.03%   9,509.28
NASDAQ  2.92 -0.14%   2,017.98
S&P 500 0.57 -0.06%   1,025.57

Consumer confidence index in America rose to 47.9% in August, slightly better than consensus estimate of 47.6%, but too much bullishness of late did not make this news move their markets much.

Meanwhile in China, stocks continue their roller coaster ride, now tumbling 4% due to bank lending tightening fears.

Locally, any early rally fizzled out as other asian markets weakened.

Previous tandem leaders MER TEL were now polar opposites, with MER hitting 230 before closing much lower to 214, down 6 pesos worth 7.2 lost psei points.  TEL on the other hand, continued to gain 30 pesos to 2550 which was worth 8 points gained on the psei.

Daily Market Notes August 24, 2009

PSEi                 2,859.18         UP    139.00
value php               4,247,763,716.49

DOW    70.89 +0.76%   9,350.05  08/20/2009
NASDAQ 19.98 +1.01%   1,989.22  08/20/2009
S&P 500 10.91 +1.09%   1,007.37 08/20/2009

DOW 155.91 +1.67%     9,505.96  08/21/2009
NASDAQ 31.68 +1.59%   2,020.90  08/21/2009
S&P 500 18.76 +1.86%  1,026.13  08/21/2009

While the Philippines celebrated Ninoy Aquino Holiday last August 21, 2009, wall street made a cumulative climb of over 2% on its major indexes as optimism from Fed chief Bernanke that we may have seen the worst, and jump in existing home sales propel Wall Street to fresh 2009 highs.

Daily Market Notes August 20, 2009

PSEi                 2,720.18         DOWN   40.71
value php    4,248,864,005.00

DOW 61.22 +0.66%   9,279.16
NASDAQ 13.32 +0.68%   1,969.24
S&P 500 6.79 +0.69%   996.46

In the day's other economic news, mortgage applications rose last week amid an increased demand for refinancing as mortgage rates slid to a five-week low.-cnbc

Wall street climbs almost 1%, defying the gloom surrounding the futures pre open which showed a decline of about 1% due to China's continued drop.Meanwhile, yesterday's report from the Energy Department indicated that oil inventories fell by 8.4 million barrels last week, in stark contrast to the increase of 1.2 million barrels that analysts had been expecting to see for the precious crude.

Daily Market Notes August 19, 2009

PSEi                 2,760.89         UP     29.34
value php       2,977,466,015.00

DOW 82.60 +0.90%  9,217.94
NASDAQ 0.00 0.00%  1,955.92
S&P 500 9.94 +1.01%  989.6

Wall street rebounds and the only reason pointed out was that American Express led the rally after an analyst upgrade.

Asia did not seem that convinced, as most rallies tapered off, with the Shanghai Composite still managing to lose 5% by the close.

Manila Mining/Lepanto lose momentum, from yesterday, as news from abs cbn and Philstar update us on the status of the MVP due diligence: First Pacific Co. Ltd. remains interested in the mining assets of businessman Felipe Yap although any future deal may only involve the purchase of select Surigao del Norte mining rights of either Lepanto Consolidated Mining Co. and its affiliate Manila Mining Corp.—instead of an equity investment. It will be investments in either MA or LC, or both, and the details will be known within 2 to 3 months.