Daily Market Notes October 30, 2009

PSEi                 2,908.50         UP     46.17
value php               5,333,146,355.00

DOW    199.89 +2.05% 9,962.58
NASDAQ 37.94 +1.84% 2,097.55
S&P 500 23.48 +2.25% 1,066.1

Better than expected GDP report sends wall street soaring and ready to attack its recent highs.   But experts warn that government stimulus programs like Cash for Clunkers contributed strongly to the economic expansion and that the economic recovery is more fragile than the GDP numbers may suggest.

On the local front, only two index stocks: HLCM JFC managed to lose a little.  9 psei points were from TEL's 30 peso gain to 2595, which netted 42m nfb.

PX continued to dominate to 11.50, as it nets 893m nfb, and contributes 6 + psei points.

Daily Market Notes October 29, 2009

PSEi    2,862.33         DOWN   45.88
value php       3,308,579,940.00

DOW    119.48 -1.21% 9,762.69
NASDAQ 56.48 -2.67% 2,059.61
S&P 500 20.78 -1.95% 1,042.63

Stocks tumble as new home sales post surprise drop to 402,000 (from expected 450,000) for September.  Mining stocks of hard and soft commodities fall as the U.S. dollar strengthens, currently sending the Philippine Peso back to 48.

Local equities did not stand a chance.  Hitting a maximum drop of 59 points before closing down 45, the psei might be on the way to creating mini lower highs as it reaches 2,700.  This trendline value of 2,700 is only a current approximation as it steadily goes up by the day, and value may differ depending on the time and days it takes to get there.

By closing, only 2 index stocks were left standing, and both of these even a last minute runup: PX 10.75  (nfb 111m php), and MBT 40 (nfb 30m).  You've got to hand it to PX though, sellers posted amounting to about 15m shares at 10.25, 22m at 10.50, and some 10.75 were all bought up at the close mostly by broker Asiasec.

Daily Market Notes October 28, 2009

PSEi                 2,908.21         DOWN   27.53
value php               3,516,389,715.00

DOW      14.21 +0.14% 9,882.17
NASDAQ 25.76 -1.20% 2,116.09
S&P 500  3.54 -0.33% 1,063.41

a surprise drop in consumer confidence fought with the news of a better-than-expected housing market report and a mixed session in wall street ensued.  After a strong start, equities melted on the consumer confidence report, then shot back up, only to settle quite flat.

Local equities attempted to capitalize further on the Lopez stake selling news but one can only expect so much from a news that has been rehashed a lot of times in the past weeks.  

Huge NFS particularly from the turnaround of banks: BDO 28M, BPI 27M, MBT 138m, fgen 23m, ac 57m, agi 22m, ali 6m, fli 13m, meg 23m, glo 12m, gmap 21m, px 144m.

Daily Market Notes October 27, 2009

PSEi     2,935.74         DOWN    5.79
value php 3,278,951,770.00

DOW    104.22 -1.05% 9,867.96
NASDAQ 12.62 -0.59% 2,141.85
S&P 500 12.65 -1.17% 1,066.95

Wall street rises over a percent and yet lose all those gains and decline over 1% immediately thereafter, with online business sites blaming the rising dollar for the decline in equities.

On the local front, public confirmation by the Lopezes that they will be selling half their stake in Meralco to answer PLDT's declaration yesterday that they would be buying those stakes seemed like a script rehearsal for a movie.  Nontheless, this caused interest in EDC FPH, but gains in BPC FGEN MER could not hold.

Top index losers were MER TEL RLC GLO ABS LC/B PX PCOR

Daily Market Notes October 26, 2009

PSEi     2,941.53         UP      8.54
value php       2,894,512,790.00

DOW    109.13 -1.09% 9,972.18
NASDAQ 10.82 -0.50% 2,154.47
S&P 500 13.31 -1.22% 1,079.60

What was once recovered was again lost and recovered again and now lost again.  Such is the predicament of the DJIA as it zigzags along the 10k level.   CNN reports that 81% of those that have reported earnings have beaten forecasts of lowered estimates.  Now, investors have new cause to worry as expectations will now be raised.

Local stocks managed to eke out a gain by the close albeit on low volume, led primarily be PX and the Lopez stocks sans MER.  MER initially ran to 210 before initial profit taking dragged it back to 203 and never recovered from there.  It was FPH that rose to 46.5 from 43, thanks to 44m nfb.  This eventually affected BPC to rise to 3.65 as well, despite continued 13m nfs mostly from broker deutsche.

Daily Market Notes October 23 , 2009

PSEi 2,932.99 UP 44.27
value php 3,714,429,545.00

DOW 131.95 +1.33% 10,081.31
NASDAQ 14.56 +0.68% 2,165.29
S&P 500 11.51 +1.06% 1,092.91

Dow components mcdonald's, AT&T, travelers, 3m, merck, all topped estimates and boosted the djia back to the other day's highs before the nasty 90 point fall at the last hour the other day. The 131 point rebound put them back virtually where they were before they lost ground the other day.

So it seems Dow 10k is our very own PSEi's 2900, as this round of rally saw no gravitational pull.

Of the 44 point gain in the psei, 14 points came from TEL's 50 peso gain back to pivot level of 2600. 2600 was previously the resistance, which was taken out, only to fall back below this level yesterday. Over 10% of total value turnover once again made up of 472m pesos worth of traded TEL shares, of which were 155m nfb.

PSE reconstitutes index on November 3

Starting November 3, the Philippine Stock Exchange Inc. (PSE), which runs the country’s bourse, will include itself in its benchmark 30-company index.

IN: DMC, SECB

OUT: VLL RCB ABS

The announcement “marks the first time the PSE will be included in the main index, joining listed exchanges such as Singapore Exchange, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. and Australian Securities Exchange, among others, that currently form part of their main stock market indices," the PSE said in a statement.

Together with DMCI Holdings Inc. and Security Bank Corp., the PSE will replace three other companies – Vista Land and Lifescapes, Inc., Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. and ABS-CBN Broadcasting Corporation. – in the bourse’s main index, the PSE said.

Daily Market Notes October 22 , 2009

PSEi   2,888.72         DOWN   31.18
value php         3,790,314,854.00

DOW     92.12 -0.92% 9,949.36
NASDAQ 12.74 -0.59% 2,150.73
S&P 500   9.66 -0.89% 1,081.40

Wall street via the DJIA initially rallied 40 as investors welcomed better-than-expected results from Wells Fargo, U.S. Bancorp and Morgan Stanley then drops around 140 points at the last hour, to close 90 points lower, sending their index below 10,000 again. 

This is the litmus test of nerves as bulls and bears duke it out to find out once and for all if the rally is real.

Local equities faltered again on big brother's weakness.  That erap declared his candidacy officially probably did not help sentiments.  That a new typhoon is coming surely added worries to an already deficit battered country.