Our world in and out of the workaday world
Read the title. I guess that’s how I feel about the sequence of circumstances in the chronology of how they unfold.
I’ve come across two interesting technical analysis articles. One from website oldtimer Gregory Barton’s asiachart.com, and the other from xtrenders. Both agree on textbook road to to breakdown that markets are taking, only differing in the pathways to the explanation.
Look at xtrend’s dow chart:
According to Ron Coby’s Minyanville article, this “Capital V” Recovery is in danger of turning Into “Capital D” Nightmare. Read more from his article below:
Many well-respected economists and market strategists are talking about a V-shaped global recovery. Some see it as so powerful, they’re calling it a “Capital V” economic recovery — aka “2003 on steroids”.
I agree 100% — the V bottom in global markets is the result of unprecedented steroid injections by the Federal Reserve coordinated with many other Central Banks. But we all know what excess steroids ultimately do to an athlete once the power-enhancing drugs wear off. Just as the illusion of strength dissipates from an artificially pumped up body, so will the global market weaken once the “juice” of coordinated global rate cuts are reversed.
PSEi 2,953.19 DOWN 8.44
value php 2,542,720,705.00
DOW 115.70 -1.13% 10,120.46
NASDAQ 42.41 -1.91% 2,179.00
S&P 500 12.97 -1.18% 1,084.53
The oversold technical rally setup was already there, but alas, it was not to be. Markets ignored good results from Amazon, Microsoft, Ford, Colgate Palmolive, JnJ, and decided to plunge over 1%.
Locally, the selloff was not too bad but NFS still prevailed. Leading the NFS were: EDC 115M, MBT 24M, JFC 29M, AC 27M, MPI 63M, MEG 32M, GLO 28M, TEL 40M, PX 19M,
A few stocks has NFB: FGEN 18M, FPH 76M, AGI 60M, BEL 12M, RLT 14M.
TEL was singlehandedly sticking out like a sore thumb with its 15 peso rise worth 4 psei points.
PSEi 2,961.63 UP 42.15
value php 2,358,282,930.00
DOW 41.87 +0.41% 10,236.16
NASDAQ 17.68 +0.80% 2,221.41
S&P 500 5.33 +0.49% 1,097.50
In the first clear sign of a technical bounce, wall street trades lower during early session, and closes slightly higher. Asia and Europe follow with potentially over 1% upticks. Wall street got its momentum from Obama’s pledge to keep rates near zero longer.
Locally, index stocks that were NFB yesterday were mostly NFS today, a sign that either punting only by foreign funds in the hands of local button pushers, and/or accompanied by sell on rally foreign funds.
Back to NFS territory were: BDO 21M, MBT 18M, EDC 80M, MER 18M, MEG 54M, TEL 136M, GLO 14M.
I feel bad going on a vacation, and leaving things as it is. I wasn’t able to write on Friday, and I felt like an idiot giving out a “mini-bull” run assessment a few weeks back.
Anyway, what happened already happened, I guess it is time to move on, and try to manage what is served at our plates right now.
Markets have corrected hard, and the DOW is now closing in on the psychological 10,000, spooked by interest rate worries. What we have now is FED mulling exit strategies, and China trying to put brakes on its ‘overheating’ economy.
PSEi 2,919.48 DOWN 36.22
value php 2,906,004,715.00
DOW 2.57 -0.03% 10,194.29
NASDAQ 7.07 -0.32% 2,203.73
S&P 500 4.61 -0.42% 1,092.17
Wall Street rallies on good data from consumer confidence, apple, dupont, jnj, travelers, but the rally lived only through half their trading, as its close saw all the gains wiped out.
Locally, the market was shy playing footsie at the open, but renewed selling quickly snowballed into a 50 point drop on the index.
Only 3 index stocks gained: JFC AC PCOR, while 2/3 were losers led by TEL 2660 EDC 4.6 ALI 10.50.
Strong gainer was SMDC, up 14% to 4.80 with 19m nfb. SM’s 375m nfb resulted in over 1m shares crossed today at majority of 312.50.
PSEi 2,955.70 DOWN 12.26
value php 2,622,040,665.00
DOW 23.88 +0.23% 10,196.86
NASDAQ 5.51 +0.25% 2,210.80
S&P 500 5.02 +0.46% 1,096.78
Asia started flat then turned much weaker, unconvinced of Wall Street’s Tiny unsustained intraday bounce. Not helping was China’s central bank informing the banks that need to raise their reserve ratios by .5 percentage points to implement the change on Tuesday, banking sources said. Also, Obama is set to announce a $250 B 3 year spending freeze, which is really reversal of the stimulus spending last year.
Local stocks had 6 index gainers: AC GLO AEV URC BEL DMC, and the market was attempting to slightly claw its way back to the sunlight, but heavy selling in MEG again by about 11:30 a.m., fed into market sentiments already hard pressed for buyers.
Assuming regular correction only (short to medium term):
-These stocks will correct back to uptrendline, and some of the targets are still pretty far off:
*(newly updated in bold)
TEL 2500
AT – macd crossover sell 01/26/2010. S: 10, 8.90
FPH – macd crossover sell 01/26/2010 s:45.0 (still an uptrend if it hits that), break of 45 = 35
EDC – macd crossover sell on 01/26/2010 s:4.50 (still an uptrend if it hits that), break of 4.50 = 4, 4.05
*note. uptrendline supports slant up diagonally by nature, and time and duration to reach trendline may force price variation.
Already broken their uptrendline: in parenthesis (when broken)
AC (September 2009). Current support 279. If breaks the downtrend channel, then headed to around 250.
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