Our world in and out of the workaday world
Jim Rogers, Rogers, a former member of the Barron's Roundtable and, with George Soros, co-founder of the Quantum Fund in the 1970s, investor, author, biker, and adventure capitalist, has moved to Singapore for its Chinese atmosphere.
Having two daughters, one 4 years old, and one 4 weeks old, he wants them to grow up in an environment adaptable for the next superpower, China. And why not, Singapore is predominantly Mandarin speaking, less stressful and less polution than China.
He remains bullish on commodities but has sold many of his emerging-market holdings. Rogers, 65, doesn't run others' money these days, though an index he developed in the late 1990s, the Rogers International Commodities Index, has been licensed to some funds. Its cumulative return, from inception in 1998 through the end of March, was more than 380%, versus about 38% for the S&P 500.
If I hadn’t made money some of the time I might have acquired market wisdom quicker.
- Jesse Livermore
The ING Philippine Equity Fund, despite its size, was beating the index in the first half of 2007, until the subprime crash hit, prompting it to switch gears and pursue a modified strategy.
For the largest institutional equity fund, to shift from Food and Banking to Mining, and to double Communications exposure, such changes didn't happen overnight, but over a dynamic process that took 12 volatile months. Unlike the retail investor, institutional fund managers will always worry about liquidity in their decision making. As Paul Garcia, who runs the ING Philippine Equity Fund, says, "It is difficult to move when you are bigger than the market's turnover."
October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.
- Mark Twain
September 2007
Global markets begin to recover from the meltdown. PSE Index stages a 6.2% rally to recoup YTD gains to 19.8%, effectively rebounding 23.9% from its recent low and now within 5.8% of its all-time high. Daily turnover was thin and foreigners remained net sellers for the month.
The rebound was blue-chip driven with TEL hitting a new all-time high and AC rising after announcing a share buy-back next month. Property and banks rebounded later in the month on BSP rate cut speculation with ALI outperforming. Mining took center stage as LC, PX, MA, and GEO surged 29% to 57% each on the back of record highs in mineral prices. MER was the index loser, falling after being handed a disappointing tariff rate hike.
If there were no bad speculations there could be no good investments; if there were no wild ventures there would be no brilliantly successful enterprises.
- F. W. Hirst
It's election month. Market sets new all-time high with the PSE Index gaining 6.2% bringing YTD yields to 16.5% while the fund gained 7.4% for a YTD yield of 22.8% The manager writes "following relatively peaceful elections that assured President Arroyo of a stronghold in the lower house." 1Q GDP was suprisingly higher at 6.9%–highest in 17 years. Foreign direct investments soared while inflation remained below consensus estimates.
“The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it's different.'”
- Sir John Templeton
Starting Point – December 2006
"2006 was A Good Year" states the ING Manager's Report. And good it was. The PSE Index ended the last 12 months up 42.29%, its highest annual gain in the bull run since 2002. The fund beats the index and ends the year with a NAVPU gain of 54.67%, quite a feat considering the fund's size. The rosy outlook for the period is summed up by the Manager's comments: "Prospects are quite positive with fiscal improvements leading to record-low interest rates and a strong Peso, which in turn lay the ground work for a stronger recovery in overall demand and profits."
"The hardest thing to explain is the glaringly evident which everybody had decided not to see. "
- Ayn Rand
We should all be so lucky to have an inside peek at a portfolio manager’s playbook. However, I found a way to estimate the trading moves of major funds based on publicly available information. Most investment funds open to retail investors publish monthly fact sheets. Typical content of a fund fact sheet would be key statistics like the following:
In addition to the above, funds also publish a summary of the investments the fund has as of the period end, which can also be found on the fact sheets:
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