Is the bull market over, why or why not?

[dragon]

!

[shotgun x71]

I think not yet. Still too much money in the market and corporations overall are reporting good earnings. And mining companies have yet to start full production. Though I don't mind further correction to accumulate cheaper.

[Fish]

Beats me, but i second the motion on your last statement shotgun.

Edit: I voted it's over (my honest opinion though i hope not) just to see the poll results. Surprised to see that 80% are still optimistic, which is consistent with the other poll that 60% hold 75% of their portfolios still.

[jimgap1]

as long as interest rates remain low, bull run is not yet over.

[hoyhoyhoy]

I don't think also that China and India will slow down soon. Plus Japan and Europe are recovering. So while US may have its subprime problems, the strength of the economies outside the US will provide the balance. With the big companies in the US being global players, they will also benefit from the improving economies outside the US. In short, the bull run will continue. But even in a bullrun, there are troughs. Bullruns are never straight lines. The problems in the subprimes provide the needed corrections for the markets worlwide to pause, but I don't think the party is over.

[perco]

Remember February?

That was doom and gloom written all over it, where are we now? ---- Higher P6, strong Q reports. I just see this an opportunity to buy.

I don't mind being poor for two years and being rich for the rest of my life.

[Fish]

Fundamentals lead the general direction, but a good estimate of sentiments increase profit.

[Micro2Mac]

My observation lang, major bull market tops occur after d olympics. We have until next year pa. This is a good rest.

[hoyhoyhoy]

The 2nd quarter US GNP of 3.4% was actually higher than the analysts' expectation. But the investors were jittery over the subprimes uncertainties. Such jitters provide the volatilities. Those who sold down the market are probably just waiting for an opportunity to get back. Because where will they put their funds? In bonds? How much return will they get from bonds?

[perco]

bonds = lowest return for investment at the longest possible period.

[Fish]

"I don't mind being poor for two years and being rich for the rest of my life."

Me too perco, but i still remember that i bought PCOR at 9, sold it in a few days at 26 (1997 ba ito?) and when i learned about stockmarket trading last year, realized that it was at 2+. With this in mind, i cutloss aggressively 3x already, june 2006, feb 2007 and now, so i can preserve my capital and avoid poverty. Good luck to you my friend.

[dragon]

http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/?pag ... uly30_2007

Stock market bull run over — Deutsche Bank

By Eileen A. Mencias

Deutsche Bank has warned that the stock market bullrun in the Philippines may be over, not necessarily because of government’s poor fiscal performance.

In a market commentary dated July 27, Deutsche Bank strategist Anton Periquet said “there is renewed debate over whether fiscal concerns might undermine the raging Philippine bull market now that global risk appetites have begun to waver.”

Periquet said the bull market in the Philippines was driven mainly by earnings and was reasonably insulated from government’s revenue position over the medium term.

He said the risk lied mainly on the re-rating component when investors review their share price gains against the cost of equity assumptions. Deutsche Bank said the re-rating component accounted for as much as 15 percent of the current market capitalization.

“The bears argue that the credibility of the government’s fiscal program is a cornerstone of the bull market,” Periquet said. “The bulls contend that the importance of achieving a balanced budget in 2008 is merely symbolic. That the size of the slippage, should one occur, will not be significant enough to push up interest rates even if a must-do infrastructure spending program in 2008 were to be debt financed.”

He said an analysis of the tax data for 2007 without the earnings from privatization painted a worrisome picture as it showed a deterioration in government’s finances early in the economic cycle.

“Today’s creeping deficit raises the specter of interest rising ahead of schedule, nipping investment recovery in the bud. On the other side, the Arroyo administration appears to be focusing on the national budget deficit after throwing in privatization receipts. Using these parameters, the picture that emerges is slightly different,” Periquet said.

Deutsche Bank said the government ran budget surpluses in 1995 to 1997 during the second half of the bull market after the initial public offering cycle kicked into high gear.

While there are no surpluses on the horizon this year, Deutsche Bank said it expected the books to nearly balance with the proceeds from the sale of shares in Philippine Telecommunications Investment Corp. and PNOC-Energy Development Corp. Government shares in San Miguel Corp. and Manila Electric Co. are also scheduled to be sold to plug the budget gap.

[silentmax]

the fact that this kind of article is out is a good sign its not over. only when you see complacency and irrational exuberance in the perma longs, only then we will see.. plus the olypics is not done yet. come on, capitulation maximus orgasmius china olympia 2008
maybe then..... but not now.


now we breathe.